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A wild ride

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A wild ride

Our weekly opinion piece and overview
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October 8th, 2017

Trading futures

The reported rumor that Goldman Sachs is considering launching a bitcoin trading desk points to more than an intriguing strategy shift for the investment bank – if true, its impact could be felt much further afield. (More in the THE TAKEAWAY below.)



TOP TRENDS ON COINDESK

Form and structure

This week revealed a growing industry focus on improving the structure of the digital token market.

First and foremost, Marco Santori of U.S. law firm Cooley LLP gave an overview of the white paper that his firm, in conjunction with Protocol Labs, drafted with the aim of formalizing "Simple Agreements for Future Tokens" (or SAFTs), investment tools he believes provide a path to market for token sales targeting the U.S. market.

In our Token Economy series, Michael Casey highlighted how the concept's limitations could hopefully initiate legislative reform. And on the practical side, blockchain technology firm Templum, in conjunction with market maker Liquid M, announced it would seek to launch a regulated platform for token trading.

Testing testing

Financial institutions also continued to reveal details about their blockchain work.

The central depository for Russia's largest securities exchange group disclosed that it is working on a new distributed ledger bond trading platform. The Monetary Authority of Singapore unveiled a new set of prototypes for blockchain-based payments.

Gas and energy giant BP announced that it is expanding a trial of an energy trading platform by Canadian startup BTL. And four major financial institutions from Canada, Spain, Germany and Austria have joined a blockchain-based trade finance project led by Switzerland-based UBS and tech giant IBM.
 
Case and point

The week also saw news of several intriguing non-financial use case developments. 

Air France is looking at how it can apply blockchain tech to track workflows within its aircraft maintenance systems. Malta's government is set to trial blockchain technology for keeping track of academic certifications.
 
And, since we all know how easily staplers go missing, a major agency within the US Department of the Treasury is planning to track the movement of smartphones, computers and other office assets in a new blockchain pilot.
 
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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"The problem is not the SAFT, of course, which is a sound compromise for letting founders fund development work without fear of being shut down, while protecting investors from fraudsters who would run off with their money. The problem is the law itself."

– Michael J. Casey, "Where SAFT Falls Short", CoinDesk   
 


THE TAKEAWAY 

While Jamie Dimon may be convinced that bitcoin is a fraud, it appears that the competition has a different view.  

Earlier this week, The Wall Street Journal reported on a rumor that Goldman Sachs is considering putting together a new trading outfit for cryptocurrencies. Its CEO Lloyd Blankfein later tweeted that he was undecided on bitcoin as a currency, deftly skirting the issue of the rumor – of course, it's not necessary to "believe" in the bitcoin story to see that there's money to be made by trading it (and Goldman Sachs research covers bitcoin as an asset).

If the rumor is true, however, this is more than just another example of Wall Street and bitcoin getting closer.

Good company

First of all, Goldman Sachs would not be alone in putting financial weight behind bitcoin. Fidelity Investments has been working on bitcoin-related projects for some time through its R&D arm Fidelity Labs, most recently unveiling a partnership with Coinbase to enable account holders to track their cryptocurrency holdings alongside more traditional assets.

Still, it would be the first Wall Street-based institutional trading desk for the asset.

The report does stress that Goldman may eventually pass on the project. Yet even if it does, it is indicative of an increasing acceptance in the upper echelons of finance that bitcoin is not going away, and that there is money to be made.

What's more, the strategy does fit in with Goldman's reputation as aggressive traders seeking high-risk, high-return turnover – more so than does its recent foray into retail banking.
  
And with market volatility at a five-year low (according to the leading index), it makes sense that the investment bank would look for a new opportunity to offset the recent slump – Q2 trading revenues were down 40% year-over-year.

Will other Wall Street giants follow? It's likely. Last week the CEO of Morgan Stanley stated that bitcoin was "more than just a fad."

Choppy charts

Yet, the potential impact of the project, if pursued, would go beyond Goldman Sach's bottom line.

The most noticeable impact would be on bitcoin's trading volumes, as even more institutional funds pour into the market. This could significantly push up the volatility, making bitcoin even more of a high-risk/high-return asset than it already is – which in turn could attract more risk-seeking institutional funds, perpetuating a chaotic cycle that could well end in tears.

On the other hand, we could also see a corresponding increase in the trading of bitcoin derivatives. Earlier this year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission authorized LedgerX as the first regulated bitcoin derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. And the Chicago Board Options Exchange is expected to launch bitcoin futures contracts later this year.
 
With heightened demand for hedging instruments, it's likely that others will emerge.

Since hedging reduces the need to "churn" positions (what investors lose on one position they make on another), a more liquid derivatives market could partially calm bitcoin volatility.

It could also kickstart a snowball effect on liquidity. One of the reasons the SEC gave for rejecting the Winklevoss brothers' bid to launch a bitcoin ETF was the vulnerability of the bitcoin price to manipulation. A strong increase in liquidity could encourage a favorable review of the situation.

New plan

A final, tenuous but nevertheless intriguing effect could be the emergence of bitcoin as a competitive tool. We could see corporate strategies regarding bitcoin services as a differentiating factor that positions financial businesses as more forward-thinking, trader-friendly and value-driven than the "old school" counterparts.

This is already beginning to happen in the banking sector. In Japan, several large financial firms have invested in bitcoin exchanges, with SBI contemplating setting up its own. And Skandiabanken of Norway is offering its clients cryptocurrency services. That investment banks are thinking of officially getting involved is a sign of the idea spreading to other areas of finance.

To repeat, rumors by nature are unconfirmed, and Goldman Sachs may decide to not go ahead. It's possible that they're not even thinking of it, and that this rumor was maliciously started to move the bitcoin price.

However, the strategy makes sense. And if Goldman Sachs isn't thinking of it, they should. Because if they don't, a competitor will. And the rest of us will have to brace for yet more of a wild ride.

- Noelle

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Beyond CoinDesk...

OTHERS ARE TALKING ABOUT

In the mainstream press this week, Quartz published a gripping report on China's role in bitcoin and blockchain. The Wall Street Journal also reported from China on the post-crackdown bitcoin scene, as well as on a potentially new role for the IMF thanks to blockchain technology.

The FT talked about the incursion of digital token sales into venture capital territory. And Bloomberg looked at Wall Street's interest in bitcoin, as well as the incorporation of "zero-knowledge proofs" on ethereum.

Beyond finance, The Guardian looked at blockchain technology's potential impact on archaeology. The Harvard Business Review explained how it could make personal data more secure. And the MIT Technology Review talked about how it could help with public health and crisis management.

UPCOMING EVENTS (see more in our full listing)  

WHAT WE'VE BEEN UP TO

It's not only our team that's growing. Thanks to their efforts, our web traffic isn't doing too badly, either, and in September we reached all-time traffic highs for the fifth month in a row. #notsohumblebrag

To keep this momentum going, CoinDesk is hiring – check out our jobs page, and let us know if you think you or someone you know would be a good fit. One thing is for sure: it's not a boring place to work!
 
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